Morocco’s migration transition: Trends, determinants and future scenarios

This paper aims to interpret the evolution of migration within and from Morocco over the twentieth century from a combination of theoretical perspectives defined as “transitional migration theory”. Colonization and incorporation of rural areas, along with a certain level of development, have spurred internal and international wage labor migration within and from Morocco to Europe. Migration seems to be the result of development rather than the reverse. Highly marginalized regions participated less in migration than the three, moderately enclosed “migration belts” with established traditions of pre-modern, largely circular migration. At the onset of large-scale migration, colonial bonds with Spain and France and selective labor recruitment had a major influence in determining the spatial patterns of labor migration. However, the influence of policies rapidly decreased because of self-perpetuating network effects. Rather than a reduction in migration, increasingly restrictive policies coincided with an increasing reliance on family migration, permanent settlement, undocumented migration and the exploration of new migration itineraries. Alongside a decentralization of internal migration, a spatial diffusion of international out-migration has occurred beyond the historical migration belts in response to new labor opportunities in southern Europe. Persistent demand for migrant labor, along with demographic factors and increasing aspirations, suggest that the propensity to migrate over formally closed borders is likely to remain high in the near future. However, in the longer term, out-migration might further decrease and Morocco could increasingly develop into a migration destination for migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa, a transition process which has already been set in motion.